Rakshith Aloori

Utopia of Water Abundance5th February 2025

India and developing nations should transition from an agriculture-dominant country to an industry-dominant one. And they need a lot of water.Let’s take India as an example. India is already under heavy water stress with most of the water spent on agriculture. There is no surplus left. In this zero-sum game, the only way to create an industrial base is to strip precious water from agriculture and allocate it to industry.To match India’s industrial capability to that of the US, India needs 941 m3 per person per year of additional freshwater. Today, India consumes 602 m3 per person per year which is 66% of its internal water sources[1]. This only leaves a surplus of ~300 m3 per person per year. So, even if we allocate all water from agriculture & the surplus to the industry, it still won’t be enough to reach the standard of living in the US. If India decides to become an industry-dominant nation, it can’t do it. There isn’t enough water to go around.Then, without choking the water needs of agriculture, how do you build an industrial nation? By artificially producing more freshwater from the sea.First-world countries

In developed countries, there are two paths to grow the standard of living further:
1. Evolve more cities into metropolises
2. Build new cities

Guess what? Both paths need more water – more than what we have today. The solution again is artificially producing more freshwater. California has been playing this zero-sum game. California Forever is a project aiming to build a new city. The water they need won’t magically come from the air but has to be reallocated and cannot be used somewhere else. Estimated water needs are around 12,600 acre-feet per year (~16 million m3/year).The zero-sum game of water allocation plagues both developing and developed countries. Every country is forced to choose between maintaining the status quo (growing food) and improving the standard of living (through growth).We can solve this with abundant artificial production of freshwater from seawater. With cheap water abundance, new industries also spring up — aquaculture, cheap hydrogen production, growth of the chemical industry and more — putting an end to the zero-sum game and politics surrounding freshwater today. We should pursue this.Cost of UtopiaThe estimation of additional freshwater the world needs is ~1.6 trillion m3 per year. If we meet this demand entirely with artificially produced freshwater, it costs ~$8.9 trillion. Over 50 years, it’s ~$178 billion per year. Comparing it to the world’s GDP of ~$100 trillion, it costs ~0.18% to meet the new freshwater demands. 0.18% is a wise investment given how much new wealth will be created through industry or new cities. Now, these are optimistic calculations. The real calculations during the deployment of the tech may be higher. Over the years as the costs of solar and desalination drop, the cost of freshwater drops too.That’s a lot of money.Yes, it is. But the cost of artificially produced water (through desalination) today is 4x to 10x cheaper than tap water in most cities. The number of such cities will only increase as the costs of solar and desalination fall. This is no longer a pipedream. It is real today. The costs will keep falling — all thanks to cheap solar. The red dotted line (at $0.5/m3) is the desalinated water cost.This is what we envision the future to be — wealthy, abundant and prosperous.The choice is ours to make. What will you choose?

1. [1] Water Use and Stress - Our World in Data

If there is ~infinite water in the seas and oceans, why don’t we directly use it then?Seawater contains 35,000 ppm of salts while tapwater contains 500-800 ppm.Plants absorb water from the soil through osmosis. Using very salty water, like seawater, dehydrates plants and crops. Once you contaminate soil with salty water, there’s no going back. The salt stays in the water preventing any growth of plants. This is why (in LA wildfires, for example) you cannot use seawater to extinguish fires.

[Update | 3rd April, 2025] I’m not proud of this essay. I think it’s bad. I’ll do a better job next time.

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